KEMRI warns that Kenya not yet out of the woods despite failed COVID-19 forecast

KENYA – KEMRI’s prediction of a fourth wave in the month of July, with a peak of infections mid-month has not come to pass, the agency, however warns that the situation is far from contained.

The modelling had also anticipated an additional 4300 hospital admissions and 580 deaths, largely owing to the delta variant.

The Kenya medical research institute (KEMRI’s Acting Director General Prof. Sam Kariuki explains what informed the projection.

The modelling followed a mathematical formula. it is also like the weather prediction; you can get what you predicted or what you had not.” Prof. Sam Kariuki said.

According to the modelling, the start of a fourth wave was imminent in the Coastal region and Nairobi county owing to the delta variant that was already causing a surge of cases in the Nyanza and Western region.

The modelling predicted that the Nyanza and Western region’s health facilities ran the risk of being stretched beyond their capacities.

However, according to health experts, the government’s intensified surveillance in the 13 hotspots in the lake basin, continued measures such as mask use, social distancing and handwashing also helped avert a fourth wave.

Increased vaccination was also a critical intervention.

“The government is putting in measures in place to ensure that we do not experience a 4th wave.” Acting Director General Ministry of Health, Dr. Patrick Amoth said.

In the month of July, so far by Wednesday 21st July, 10,149 positive cases have been recorded.

11 deaths have also been recorded, but with late deaths being recorded, it may not give an accurate picture of all the deaths that have specifically occurred in the month of July.

257,890 doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered, with the population of adults fully vaccinated marginally increasing.

Nairobi has continued to record the highest number of cases consistently, which was accurately predicted. Mombasa, is also another county of concern.

In the last 24 hours, 503 more people have tested positive for COVID-19. Out of 4060 samples, the test positivity rate is 12.4%.

11 deaths have been recorded, bringing the fatalities to 3811. 1253 people have been admitted in various health facilities.

Nairobi has recorded 334 cases, the highest number in the sample size, Kilifi 84, Nakuru 21 and Kiambu 20.

The adult population fully vaccinated is 2.2%.

However, with increased political activity around the country, the just concluded by-elections in Kiambaa and Muguga, entertainment events and the just concluded world rally championship in Naivasha, KEMRI scientists warn that there is the likelihood of increased infections.

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